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The time has come to look forward to the Assembly elections, less than a month away now. And I never want to do anything like Predictions 2010 series again (seriws now south), I still can not help myself but about trying to predict this year's results. And what easier way to do so than by region? A little fun is the thing more than anything, although there is a general consensus among commentators as to what will happen, and I agree with the event. The Constituencies Anyway, to hell with the big picture for a moment. Ideas began with the South West Wales and I do, too. The simple reason is, electorally, this is the least interesting commando area some distance from Wales this year. Labour gained seven seats here in the constituencies, and this will be the situation thereafter. If Labour had somehow captured power in London in 2010, the situation would be very different, and it contained detailed analyzes of a few seats here. Conservatives could capture Gower aa Pen-y-bont, we would expect the Liberal Democrats to win in Swansea West and went Plaid Cymru Neath for the first time in its history. Although Neath are most likely to deliver a shock to us this year, with polls suggest commando Labour huge growth from the last Assembly election, it is very hard to see that happening, so much of my I disagree with ideas even chance of winning here if Adam Price has chosen to stand. However, with a good effort things could be close there, and I feel some Conservatives can do better than expected in Gower. Prophecy: Labour 7 (-) The List The only real battle in South West Wales will be on the list. Again, I tend to agree with the views and ideas about what will happen. With the support of the Liberal Democrats collapsed, it is not impossible that they will lose their one seat, one Black, managing to be less than half the votes that Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. In fact, under the right circumstances, the party won fewer votes than the BNP or the Greens, or even both. I do not think things will get that bad on them. With polls suggesting Welsh very large variations in the support of the Party between early March and the end of March in the region, and the samples are small, but no change to the Conservatives, commando it is difficult to use surveys to produce evidence sound judgment on what will happen. She is close between the two parties here - fell 0.1% vote Plaid Cymru between 2003 and 2007 (to 17.7%) and increase did the Conservatives 1.1% (to 16.1%). Synnwn not we see a similar pattern and I suspect that some Conservatives come in second on the list this month after it narrowly. In terms of seats so the only change I can envisage here is the Conservatives wins a seat on the list, probably by the Liberal Democrats. commando But that does not fully guaranteed. Without commando going into the details of the electoral system today (which is not as complex as those actiwli), simply, in the South West, the party comes third party comes here twice won the votes of the fourth +1. The party that comes second on the list two seats here, no doubt - and in my view Conservatives go with it. Therefore, have to be Plaid double the votes that the Dems Free here to win the second seat. The last time, the party 28 819 votes and the Dems gives 20,226. Tip of the polls is a small fall in the polls Party - say to 26000-27000, but that vote the Dems gives not far from halving - in this case, that equates to 11,000 votes. I tend to think that they have to win at least 14,000 votes to be sure of a seat. That will depend on the turnout, and there is no indication so far of what could be in that regard. However, I will fight for the fourth seat is close. Given the polls, commando the Liberal Democrats easily be less than 14,000 on the list here, which makes it likely now that Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives two seats each, unless one vote or another breakdown. Prophecy: Conservative 2 (+1) Plaid 2 (-) Dems gives 0 (-1)
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